This is evidenced by the data of a joint study of the credit history bureau Equifax and the Association of debt collectors NAPCA, which was reviewed by Izvestiya. Analysts called this the first call of the crisis in the car market, as citizens buy up to 75% of cars in debt. The number of defaults will not be affected by credit vacations, because they apply to loans up to 600 thousand rubles, and the average amount of a loan for a car exceeds 780 thousand rubles. Experts predict a further increase in the share of delays due to the deterioration of the financial situation of citizens.

Give time

The volume of defaulted debt on car loans for the first quarter of 2020 increased by 4%, to 52 billion rubles, compared to the same period in 2019, according to research by Equifax and NAPCA.

If we judge by the example of the crisis of 2014-2015, the volume of car loans may decrease by 2.5-3 times, said Oleg Lagutkin, the CEO of Equifax to Izvesliya. However, according to him, we can not rule out a deeper fall, because car dealerships do not work. In the last week of March, the volume of applications for car loans fell by half, and their approval rate decreased from 46-50 to 40%, he said.

— A decrease in the number of applications and the level of their approval will lead to a reduction in lending volumes in annual terms, – added Oleg Lagutkin.

In late February and early March, an increase in the volume of issuance was recorded up to 50%, says Yuri Kudryakov, the CEO of the financial market Unicom24. According to him, this is due to the weakening of the ruble and fears that cars will rise sharply in price. In April, the citizens moved to a regime of total savings due to increasing uncertainty.

VTB said that at the end of the first quarter, there was an increase in the number of applications for car loans. In March, their number increased by 16.5% compared to February, the press service of the financial organization reported. They explained that it is premature to give forecasts for the future, because much will depend on the duration of the impact of the coronavirus on the market.

Lending has stopped, the number of applications is at a minimum level and most of them were formed before the quarantine, said Alexey Tokarev, the President — Chairman of the Board of Rosgosstrakh Bank (member of the Group OTKRITIE). Customers are staying at home, points of sale are operating in a limited mode, and car dealerships have stopped working. Earlier, Izvestiya wrote that dealers and insurance companies asked the Russian government to cancel the forced vacations for car dealerships and allow them to sell cars offline.

– Car dealers are looking for new sales channels. For example, buying a car online and then delivering it. The idea resonates with customers, but it is too early to talk about the mass nature of this service, ” Alexey Tokarev said.

In the conditions of global quarantine due to the coronavirus and business stagnation, it can be assumed that the growth of arrears on debts will be significant, believes Fedor Vachata, the CEO of M.B.A. Finance. Someone will lose his job, and someone will lose his income. According to him, citizens are already thinking about how to provide themselves and their families with the most necessary things for life, and not about how to avoid delinquency on debt obligations.

Previously Izvestiya reported on a record size of the average loan on a car. According to data for the first three months of 2020, it increased to 784 thousand rubles. At the same time, credit vacations for this category of loans can be taken with a maximum amount of up to 600 thousand rubles.

The Central Bank did not respond to the request about the growth of delays in car loans and additional measures to support this segment.

Most of all

The number of debtors on auto loans in the first quarter increased by 3%, to 112.8 thousand, according to the study. At the same time, a third of the total number of delays with a period of more than 90 days fall on five regions. In Moscow-9.4%, in Krasnodar territory-5.6%, in Bashkortostan-5.38%, in Saint Petersburg-5.1% and Tatarstan-4.8%. The volume of problem car loans in these regions is 17.16 billion rubles.

The press services of the administrations of these subjects did not respond promptly to the questions from Izvestiya about the reasons for delays.

All these regions are economically developed, explains Elman Mekhtiev, the President of SRO NAPCA. According to him, the needs of residents of these regions are higher than the national average. They spend more than they earn, so the amount of loans and debt is higher here than in other regions. Buyers make a choice in favor of expensive cars, and then cann’t cope with this load, he added.

Regional borrowers prefer to borrow less expensive car models, believes Anton Dmitrakov, the General Director of the debt collection agency EOS. According to him, in such regions the number of citizens who have problems with payment may be higher, but in monetary terms, the indicators are lower than in Moscow or St. Petersburg.

What’s next

Experts do not undertake to estimate how much car loans and car sales will fall. It is not yet known how long the self-isolation regime will last and how quickly the economy will recover. Banks may tighten their requirements for borrowers, said Fedor Wachata from M.B.A. Finance. Buying a car on credit is a luxury that citizens can afford in stable times, but not in the current conditions, he added.

If at the beginning of the year, lending volumes were growing, including due to the support programs, it is now difficult to determine the further development of the market, believes Alexey Tokarev, the head of Rosgosstrakh Bank. The situation is changing faster than the response measures are introduced, he added. According to his forecasts, the fall in the lending market can be expected at the level of 25% compared to the previous year. The introduction of non-working days and self-isolation affected the customer’s behavior, shopping cart and needs.