According to the National Association of Professional Collection Agencies (NAPKA) research, at the moment in the work of collectors is about 10 million debts in the amount of 1.4 trillion rubles. And this data includes both agency-based debt collection and cession. But another 6.5–7 million debts of Russians to credit institutions are at work of the Federal Bailiff Service (FSSP), and the amount for recovery reaches 2 trillion rubles! By the data of NAPCA, the average overdue debt varies between 70-80 thousand rubles. At the same time, about 47% of debtors refer to the fact that they cannot service the loan due to financial difficulties, almost a third (30%) said about the income decline, and every fifth (that is, 20%) complained of excessive debt burden.

Of course, all these reasons are objective and reflect the overall situation on the market.

“The growth in the market of the “bubble” associated with the inability of borrowers to pay loans with high interest rates should be stopped,” – recently said Maxim Oreshkin, Head of the Ministry of Economic Development, in an interview to TV channel “Russia-24”. A little earlier, during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, he pointed out that the debt of the population is caused by a decrease in income of citizens. However, Russian President during the “Hot line”, also warned about the risks of “bubbles”, pointed out that the Russians are forced to spend a lot of money on servicing Bank debts, and, consequently, their incomes do not grow.

“Most of the population perceives the loan as a lifeline: often borrowed funds are used for the most necessary things that an average family cannot afford – vacation, to buy equipment or, for example, to prepare a child to school. The majority of citizens have not one, but two or more loans. And often there is a situation that all subsequent loans needed to ensure previous”, – said Fedor Vahata, CEO of M.B.A. Finance in the interview to “FinNewspaper”.

Yuri Kudryakov, CEO of the financial market “Unicom 24”, agreed with Fedor Vahata: “Today, more than 60% of Russians do not have savings, while the level of consumption is not reduced. According to recent surveys and studies, 40% of Bank clients take out loans to ensure habitual life style. At the same time, a third of them, with an income below 50 thousand rubles, are forced to save on essential goods in order to make a monthly payment.”

This is a vicious circle: loans grow because of low incomes, and incomes do not grow because of high debt. Can it be broken?

“Of course, there is a policy of financial literacy. And we can say that the population in recent years has become better versed in financial matters, more aware of the loans and the consequences of non-payment of debt. But these measures are not enough. To improve the situation a set of measures should be done by the Government”, – said Fedor Vahata.

According to the Central Bank, the expansion of consumer lending is due to already credited groups of the population. However, Elvira Nabiullina, the Head of the Regulator, is still convinced that there is no “bubble” in this area, and, accordingly, there are no risks to financial stability. Nevertheless, despite this confidence, Nabiullina noted that the Central Bank is taking preventive measures to cool the market.

“The regulator has recently initiated new measures to maintain the quality of the portfolio at the right level. This is the actual prohibition of foreign currency lending, and the definition of the minimum level of the initial payment, as well as many other steps,” – said the President of SRO NAPCA.

Kudryakov agreed with the opinion: “the Regulator keeps abreast. So, already on October 1, the maximum debt load coefficient will come into the force. And according to expectations, it will be able to restrain lending among those categories of citizens who are at risk of default.”

There’s not much left until October: we’ll wait. Let’s hope that the measures taken by the Central Bank will help to cool the consumer lending market.

And yet, “a little” is a little more than three months. Will the bubble burst during this period?